Space weather occurs when an explosive event near the sun surface projects a strong radiation for the earth. Such events generally reach the peak during the maximum of the sun (the cycle occurring every 11 years), but serious events can occur at the minimum of the sun. Currently we are experiencing the highest level of solar activity at the highest level.
As the sun reaches the most active period in 22 years, we know more and more risk of severe space weather events. For example, in May 2024, it was found on the Mother’s Day Storm, producing Aurora, which shows Aurora from all over the United Kingdom. This has been the most powerful solar storm that hit the top of the earth since 2003. There was a wonderful image, but UKHSA scientists were studying these events to solve the danger to people.
This solar phenomenon may seem far away, but the potential impact on public health and national infrastructure is important enough to be included in the National Risk Registration. For this reason, the British government is very serious about this danger.
Understanding threat
The result of serious space weather can interfere with a wide range of power grids, transportation and satellite work. Satellite interruption can cause the loss of GPS that affects navigation.
However, the side of radiation, chemistry, climate and environmental risks in UKHSA is especially risk of radiation exposure to workers and the general public. Those who are at the greatest risk include individuals in high -level aviation and space environments that reduce their own and atmospheric protection.
The threat related to the aurora comes mainly from the magnetic field that can induce the current of the conductor at sea level. The magnetic field caused major electric grid breakdowns in Ottawa in 1989, and recently, South Africa and Sweden’s grid breakdown. But none of the events that have influenced 1859 Carrington EventThis suspended geometric storms and full body communication. It is often considered a benchmark of the worst scenario, but according to the historical record, the event in the 1,000 -year category can be much worse than the Carington event.
Events that release very high energy protons are most important in terms of radiation they experience. In this regard, the May 2024 incident was not a major, but radiation was still detected on the sea level on a relatively small peak.
Government response
It recognizes the potential seriousness of this ‘low frequency, high shock’ threat. Energy security and net zero wealth (Desnz) is leading the government’s response plan. UKHSA has contributed to the expertise related to radiation exposure among commercial flights. Preparation of serious space weather events is regularly exercised for preparation, including advice supplied to a scientific advisory group for emergency events.
Monitoring function development
Until recently, the UK had a lack of ability to estimate radiation doses in real time during severe space weather events. This important gap is now solved Space weather measurement, measurement, modeling and risk projects (Swimming) developed an improved measurement function that enables quick evaluation of radiation exposure.
The main development is as follows:
- Onboard monitor placement to measure the speed of live doses of commercial aircraft. Their first placement is already focused on flights from the west coast of the United States on some long distance flights.
- Development of the UK -based ground level Neutron monitor To provide real -time data to MET Office, you must soon work as a second instrument planned for SHETLAND isles.
- elevation MAIRE-S NOWCAST System for more accurate estimates for space rays in the atmosphere: this is used in real time during severe space weather events.
Actual applications and future plans
In cooperation with SEIG (Space Environment Impacts Expert Group), UKHSA is developing predictions to identify high -risk periods that commercial flight patterns may require adjustment. These recommendations are implemented only in the most extreme solar conditions.
Onboard flight monitors are already in operation and are currently trying to expand the use in long -distance flights to improve cast accuracy. These real applications show significant progress in the ability to cope with the UK’s serious space weather.
I am looking for it in the future
The next two to three years will provide an important test for these new features and response frameworks before facing the next solar maximum value, which is expected in the mid -2030s. However, major space weather events can occur at any stage of the sun cycle, so there is no room for snacks.
This period will be important for refining our understanding and response to the universal weather threat, and it is important to maintain this universe problem that can have a great impact on most people, but can have a technical and technical dependent society.
Rick Tanner, the radiation metro group leader of UKHSA, said:
“The threat of serious space weather is surprising, but the risk of everyday risks is very low. The government has continued to monitor solar activity through sophisticated detection networks and improved the ability to estimate radiation doses during severe events.
We are also gaining valuable knowledge of long -term radiation exposure to aviation, and we are developing predictive tools to help adjust commercial flight patterns during high risks. This is the danger of our understanding and actively preparing. “
