Joan presky is worried about dementia. Her mother lived with Alzheimer’s bottle for 14 years, the last seven lived in the memory management residence, and the motherfather also had dementia.
“I’m 100 % convinced that this is in my future.”
Last year, she was widely evaluated with neuropsychologists almost all day. The result was that her short -term memory was fine (she found “shock and comfort,” and she showed that she had tested more than an average in all cognitive categories.
She is not relieved. She talked about her mother’s decline. “The memory of her what she has experienced is profound to me.”
The view of dementia, which includes Alzheimer’s disease and many other cognitive disorders, I am afraid of Americans That A A recent study that predicts a steep increase We have attracted the public’s attention over the next 30 years.
The researcher’s discovery, which was published in natural medicine in January, was even jokingly in the weekend update section of “Saturday Night Live.”
“The dementia is fatal and very related to the oldest times,” said Josef Corresh, director of the ADING Institute of NYU LANGONE HELONTH.
The results are now challenged by other dementia researchers.
From 1987 to 2020, Dr. Corresh’s team was expected to have a much higher risk of lifetime dementia than previous studies, using data from about 15,000 American data collected from four research clinics nationwide.
Dr. CORESH said that the higher the lifespan, the more reflected on the dependence on the research on more samples than the study used.
The researchers have applied risk calculations to the US population, and each year, the number of people to develop dementia will doubles about 20,000 by 2060 to about 20,000 by 2060.
Eric Stallard, an insurance agent and co -director of Duke University’s Aging Research Unit, read the study and thought the team seemed to be “very competent in analysis.”
However, in terms of prediction that the case would be doubled, the incidence of dementia would be stable for the next 40 years.
“The concept that the number of people with dementia will be doubled in the next 25, 30 or 35 years due to the aging of the baby boom generation is widespread and widespread,” he added.
Two other Duke researchers recently announced Jama’s commentary He pointed out that the prevalence of dementia in the country has been steadily decreasing for 40 years.
Dr. Murali Doraisweamy, head of Duke’s Neuro Cognitive Disorder Program and co -author JAMA Artic, said, “If the risk is lower than the parent’s risk and the trend continues, the expected dementia or three times will not be seen.
Obviously, experts agree that the number of people with dementia will rise in the next decades. This is because it will simply rise to the age of disability and increase the number of senior citizens in the United States.
But Stallard estimates that by 2050, it will increase by 10-25 %. “It will still be a big challenge to the American health system.”
The Duke Group relied on long -term research on people aged 65 and over, with more than 21,000 respondents in 1984, and about 16,000 in 2004, with data on national health and retirement and national health and aging trend.
According to their analysis, the proportion of dementia among the 85 and 89 -year -old boys was about 23 %in Cohort, born in 1905. Born 10 years later, the figure fell to about 18 %.
Born in 1935, about 11 %of Americans were demented when they reached in the late 80s. The projections of people born from 1945 to 1949 are currently about 8 %.
He said in an e -mail that Dr. Coresh, a major concern for individual risks, will continue to decrease the current ratio of the current ratio.
yet Another long -term study “We also found these improved improvements in the recent cohort, published in Nature Aging, among the elderly in the UK and China, published last year.”
Dr. Beard said, “In the United States, the increase in the absolute number of dementia patients will be less than we were afraid.
Why did it lead to a decrease in dementia in some European countries? Often cited descriptions include rising education levels, reducing smoking, high blood pressure and improvement of high cholesterol treatment.
that Lancet committee In dementia, intervention and treatment can still lead to greater reductions by developing 14 modified risk factors, including hearing aid use and reduction of air pollution.
But that can also happen. Dr. Doraiswamy pointed out that a wider test will increase the number of dementia diagnosis or increase the definition of dementia. The increase in life expectancy has the same effect.
More common obesity and diabetes can lead to more dementia in recent decades, but if people can get them, they can create a lot of new drugs that can slow down the trend.
Dr. Gill Livingston, a psychiatrist of the University College London, who leads Lancet Commission, said, “Nothing is inevitable.”
She pointed out that public health policies have made a big difference, and “the United States is in a huge change.”
For example, the dementia ratio is “If people are less accessible to health care, they are unlikely to treat blood pressure and high cholesterol,” said Livingston.
Slashed Medicaid application can lead to the result. She added, “If air pollution increases due to fossil fuels,” he added.
Already, dementia is already much more bothered by some American population than others. Old women and blacks face greater risks with people with APOE4 genes related to Alzheimer’s disease.
Dr. Doraiswamy said that health imbalances can mean that new diabetes and obesity drugs can mean that “abundant people will have a low dementia ratio.” “Those who can’t afford and are not well -managed will have a rate.”
The debate will continue in the next decades how many elderly people will develop dementia and how individuals, family, government, and health care systems should respond.
The same is true for Mr. Freci’s fear.
Currently, she registers for lifelong learning classes, listens to walking and yoga classes, listens to podcasts, and reads many history and novels despite orthopedic problems. Her and her husband will soon take a theater in New York to the Fish Concert on the West Coast to London and Paris.
Nevertheless, her pre -guidelines contain many provisions for dementia. “I am pessimistic.” She pointed out that she was diagnosed at age 77. “I have seven years before I meet her destiny,” he said.
