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Washington -Maximum 1.7 million Texas According to the analysis of health policy experts, it is expected to lose health insurance by changing the Affordable Care Act Marketplace according to the Republican tax.
Nearly 4 million Texas accession This year’s ACA Health Plan is a 12 -year -old coriander mark in the market. However, as the enhanced premium tax deduction of the BIDEN era is eased, it is expected that the change in the burden of people with market insurance coverage will be lowered, and the recent changes in GOP Megabills will increase the population without state insurance.
Experts say that this effect is high in premiums, high financial burden on hospitals, and unstable insurance marketplace can cause anti -medical environment.
Texas, like 40 states, has never expanded Medicaid to people with federal poverty, so the ACA marketplace was a huge driver. applied areaEspecially among low -income people. Texas’s non -insurance ratio Knock down As ACA registration contributed significantly, 17.4 %from 23.7 %in 2010 to 17.4 %by 2023.
This year, out of almost 4 million registrants, 100 ~ 150%of the federal poverty level, which is nearly 2.5 million, or $ 32,150 ~ $ 48,225 For four families. This helped the ACA to fill up the gaps of those who are qualiced in the qualified expansion of adults with up to 138%of the federal poverty level.
The majority of MEDICAID winners in Texas are children. Low -income adults can only be qualified if they are qualified or if they are pregnant or 65 years of age or older, or if they are a parent with monthly income. Less than $ 300 For four families.
The imminent change can indicate the source of the largest application of the Affordable Care ACT, according to Cynthia Cox, the program manager of KFF, a non -profit health policy agency that predicts the effects of MEGABILL’s MEGABILL.
“I think that many people lose their jobs and go back to the great recession when they lose their job -based health insurance coverage.” This will be more. “
It becomes more difficult to register
Many interest in Republican taxes and expenditures focused on the imposition of Medicaid, especially business requirements. However, Texas is isolated from these changes due to the status as a non -expansion and the loss of medical insurance. expectation The KFF is about 200,000 people -compared to other states.
ACA is another story.
First of all, the bill adds a new bureaucratic class that makes it more difficult to register for insurance through the market, ending new renewal and more income document requirements. In addition, the public registration period will be shortened to only one month and the registration of people who earned less than 150 % of the federal poverty level in 2026 will be terminated throughout the year. It also legally includes immigrants by acquiring insurance through the ACA market, including the DACA winner, Asyles, temporary protection status and refugees.
This change affects most Texas, which is guaranteed in the market, and 95%of which insisted on sliding scale premium subsidies, a monthly rent deduction designed to make insurance premiums at a lower price based on income in 2025. Medicare and Medicaid Center.
Republican say Changes help to remove waste, fraud and abuse in the ACA market and reduce federal expenditures. More frequent documentation and verification procedures argue that taxpayers will only support medical expenses for those who are truly qualified.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “In the Trump administration, we will no longer tolerate waste, fraud and abuse while sacrificing the most vulnerable citizens. name “We have a large bill for a multi -federal health insurance program,” as we have passed a big bill, we now have tools to strengthen this important program over various generations. “
But health care researchers argue that the cumulative effects will worsen the health results.
Lynn Cowles, the director of all Texas, a left -wing think tank, said, “The entire bill is designed for people to disassemble them and dismantle these health programs and make the entire system less.
The KFF project will lose its coverage if the ACA of this bill is changed.
The end of the enhanced premium tax deduction
Most of the expected guaranteed losses are not the provisions of the bill, but rather.
Texas’s ACA registration has soared due to the expansion of the premium tax deduction, which is a monthly subsidy for insurance companies that lower premiums according to expected income since 2021. That year, the Congress expanded tax deductions to some middle -income people who imported more than 400% of the federal poverty (standard cutoffs with subsidies). Lawmakers also reduced the monthly costs of the lowest income people who claimed tax deductions by limiting their premiums according to their income. ACA registrants import less than 150% of the poverty standard (from $ 15,650 to $ 23,475 for individual Texas).
This policy was created in 2021 by the American Rescue Plan Act and was renewed in the 2022 inflation reduction. Both legislation passed only Democratic votes.
In the case of the same state, such as Texas, which has not expanded Medicaid, the premium tax deduction was a life line of low -income classes without medical qualifications. 58 %of Texas registrants cost less than $ 10 per month.
“Because these enhanced premium tax deductions have been available, the number of people who are guaranteed ACA marketplace nationwide has more than doubled.”
However, the premium tax deduction, which was strengthened by the end of 2025, will expire and premiums may soar. This is Especially true For low -income registrants. Budget and Policy Priority Center, Non -Party Think Tank, Project For example, a monthly premium will increase from $ 0 to $ 63 for people earning $ 22,000 a year.
The KFF project can lose insurance benefits if more than 1.1 million Texans expires. Congress was still able to sign a contract to extend them. Some GOP Senators Expressing openness But in Washington, which Republicans control, they will not do so.
Many people who have earned more than 400% of the poverty that have been charged for tax deductions for the past four years will be tripled by many small business owners, rural Texas or those who approach retirement age-insurance premiums. According to a center on budget and policy priorities,. KFF expects that the average premium of Texas will increase 115%or $ 456 for those who use Texas’s average premium to receive insurance through ACA.
Cox said, “In particular, there are people who have four times more poverty.“ I expect them to have a lot of prices. ”
If the premium is so expensive, people, especially healthy people, tend to reduce the scope of insurance coverage, increase the risk of insurance companies, and increase the premiums of registrants who are not covered by insurance through the ACA market. And when the market comes to the market as a whole contract, the insurer will be delivered to the registrant in the face of additional cost pressure.
According to a copy of interest rates shared with Texas Tribune, Texas, the largest main insurance company, Blue Cross SHIELD, has requested a 21%rate increase for individual plans for ACA next year. The company’s spokesman was a preliminary rate hike, but it was confirmed that interest rate hikes were led by the ACA market’s federal change and tax deduction.
Public: Texas’s Blue Cross Blue Shield and all Texan were financial supporters of Texas Tribune, a non -profit party news organization that partially funded by donations from members, foundations and corporate patrons. Financial supporters play no role in the journalism of the tribune. Find the full list here.
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